Statistics can play tricky games, particularly in the world of homelessness. The National Alliance to End Homelessness’ latest figures estimate that 750,000 people were homeless in the United States in a one night count in 2005; 16,221 of them in Oregon. A study by the National Law Center on Poverty estimates that between 2.3 million and 3.5 million people experience homelessness in this country each year.
Locally, under three different methodologies, the city of Portland’s homeless population has swung significantly from 1,753 in 2003 to 2,355 in 2005 to 1,438 in 2007. And no count is ever considered comprehensive because of the fluidity of the homeless population and the trained inclination to remain beyond detection when you’re on the streets. Authorities conducting the counts have always acknowledged that many people go unreported, including those who are not in the homeless continuum but who live on couches or in cars.
So when the city proclaims that there is a 39 percent reduction in the number of people sleeping outside in the Portland metro area – a 70 percent reduction among those defined by HUD as chronically homeless – compared to the 2005 count, forgive us if we see, well, simply more numbers.
For two days before we went to press, we wondered how to interpret this information that wasn’t the same old broken record: that maybe these figures illustrate truly the end of homelessness within a decade. We don’t think so, nor do we think many of our readers think so either. We now apologize in advance for the broken record.
Street Roots participated in the count, collecting 20 comprehensive surveys among the homeless from our vendor community. We were proud to do so and respect the work put into making it happen. We also support the model adopted by the city and county to place people into housing first, and then weave a mesh of support services to help them become stabilized. It’s clear that by using this model, Portland and Mutlnomah County are getting people off the streets and into housing today. And just two years into the 10-year plan, the programs, such as the "Key Not a Card" housing initiative, are on the upswing, bringing into housing the influx of people who are ready to get off the streets now.
But in the enormous cause-and-effect arena of poverty and homelessness, and with all due respect to the efforts underway, the numbers mean little at this point. In their young age, the 10-year plan has yet to face the challenge of breaking the insidious cycle of homelessness — the pattern of disruption caused by limited employment opportunities, fractured and underfunded support services, the lack of affordable housing and health care, and human frailty.
As beneficial as the work on the streets has been, the worse thing we can do as a society is become placated into believing that these initial numbers on housed individuals indicates an end to the progression of homelessness in our community. After all, homelessness is the final manifestation of a system of neglect, from the lack of good jobs in the community and living wages, to the high cost of housing and health care. It is the result of years of decline in the ability of middle-income families to support themselves and the rise in the numbers of uninsured workers and children. If the advocates and lawmakers lose sight of that, we risk creating a disillusioned public and undercutting the tremendous political will that is only now beginning to create long-term, systemic change in our approach to poverty and homelessness.
Homelessness must be tackled on many levels, including immediate shelter and transitional and permanent housing opportunities. But if the machinery that produces this crisis continues to churn, we are setting ourselves up for a very rude awakening years down the line.
