As voices raised in protest outside the Oregon State Capitol Feb. 5, Marchel Kaleikini heard the ticking inside the building.
Time was already running out.
Legislators only have until Sunday, March 8, to complete their even-year short session before the Oregon Constitution requires them to adjourn.
For Kaleikini, the political director for the nonprofit advocacy organization All Families Oregon, the ticking is more than a clock. It’s an action movie. Lawmakers have only moments to snip the right wires before an economic bomb goes off that could devastate Oregonians.
Kaleikini is not sure this nail-biter is going to have a happy ending.
She and other progressive advocates helped craft a legislative package to limit the blast zone of Congress’ House Resolution 1, President Donald Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill,” that they argue sacrifices the needs of the vulnerable to the greed of the wealthy.
Progressive proposals also seek to blunt the power of federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Oregon.
Do state lawmakers have the political will and sheer chutzpah to defy Donald Trump?
‘There’s a lot of disappointment’
Because of Trump’s bill, Oregon stands to lose nearly $1 billion in revenue and cause significant cuts to health care, education and social services across the board.
Despite Oregon having a Democratic governor and Democratic supermajorities in both the House and Senate, Kaleikini worries that too many elected officials want to make deals rather than take stands.
“For many advocates inside the Capitol, it feels like there’s a lot of disappointment,” she told Street Roots as some 500 people marched and protested outside the building Feb. 5. “We’re positioned for an upward battle right now.”
Proposed legislation was already watered down to increase its chances for passing, Kaleikini said.
“The package that was presented was from internal conversations and represents the bare minimum of what we can do for Oregonians,” she said. “I wish that our supermajority came with a more progressive package and then decided to scale back based on conversations or what they’ve heard from community members.”
State Rep. Lamar Wise, D-Portland, expressed greater optimism.
Wise has co-sponsored several progressive bills this session and is the chief sponsor of House Bill 4114, that would allow civil lawsuits against ICE and other law enforcement agencies. He told Street Roots outside the Feb. 5 rally that the practical and idealistic converge this session.
“It’s going to be a fight, but I think what’s practical is taking care of our community and taking care of each other,” he said. “The more we invest in Oregon families and each other, the better outcomes we’ll see on the back end. People have to understand the long-term impacts of the decisions we make here.”
‘As we Oregonians get to make decisions’
Democrats’ big gun against the Big Beautiful Bill is Senate Bill 1507, which would disconnect Oregon’s tax code from carefully selected sections of the federal tax code. Oregon is one of the few states that automatically ties its code to changes in the federal code.
Although not replacing all the revenue lost to Trump’s bill, House Bill 1507 preserves $291 million in tax revenue for the state during the next 18 months that would otherwise have gone uncollected under the federal changes.
Critics of Senate Bill 1507 argue that Oregon retrieves a portion of that money by snatching it from businesses who would otherwise use federal tax breaks to create jobs and grow the economy. To answer such criticism, the bill includes state-level tax credits for businesses that hire Oregonians.
Members of the Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue passed the bill to the floor of the Senate Feb. 9. Republicans Mike McLane of Baker City and Dick Anderson of Lincoln City voted against the bill, while Democrats Anthony Broadman of Bend, Deb Patterson of Salem and Kathleen Taylor of Milwaukie voted in favor of it.
The bill passed the Senate 17-13 on Feb. 16 and moved to the House for a first reading.
“We as Oregonians get to make decisions about our own financial future,” Broadman, the committee’s chair, said during a Feb. 4 public hearing on the bill. “This proposal is intended to protect fiscal stability, invest in affordability and support real economic activity here in Oregon.”
Broadman noted the bill closes some of the loopholes of House Resolution 1 while preserving the prohibition on taxes on tips and overtime. It also proposes the largest increase of Oregon’s earned income tax credit in state history.
‘Not just a line on my tax returns’
The earned income tax credit provides families who make up to $68,000 a year the opportunity to receive up to $8,000 back when they file their taxes.
“The earned-income tax credit is not just a line on my tax returns,” Adrianna Contreras of Ontario told members of the committee during the public hearing. “It is something my daughter and I depend on.”
As a single mother, she told committee members, her one income only goes so far.
“The EITC doesn’t replace hard work,” Contreras said. “It recognizes it. It supports working parents who are trying their best and still struggling to make ends meet. It means fewer nights worrying about bills and fewer impossible choices between essentials. That kind of relief allows me to be more present as a parent, to focus on my daughter’s emotional, physical well-being and plan beyond just surviving the next month.”
Daniel Hauser, the deputy director of the Oregon Center for Public Policy, told committee members Feb. 4 that Oregon families face crippling cuts to education, health care and child care.
“Congress has left Oregon’s financial future on the brink, all to give tax breaks to the rich,” Hauser said. “For every dollar in federal tax breaks received by the average Oregonian in the top 1%, the median Oregonian will average about 3 cents. If you stay connected to HR 1’s tax breaks and cut services, you will pour fuel on the fire of the K-shaped economy — supercharging inequality and leaving working families behind.”
The K-shaped economy describes a recovery where different sectors experience vastly different outcomes. Some thrive (the upper arm), while some flounder (the lower arm). The term was popularized during the pandemic.
‘A tax break for rich investors’
Senate Bill 1507 would also specifically disconnect Oregon from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock, which allows non-corporate investors to exclude up to 100% of federal capital gains tax (up to $10 million) on the sale of stock held for more than five years.
“There’s no getting around the fact that QSBS is a tax break for rich investors, benefiting corporate founders and venture capitalists,” Hauser said in written testimony to the committee. “Instead of helping the small businesses it was intended to support, the tax break has been a boon for investors in big tech corporations.”
State Sen. Mike McLain of Baker said there’s nothing wrong with promoting business. In fact, he said, it’s vital to the state as a whole.
“The demonization of businesses as somehow taking advantage of loopholes when it comes to accelerated depreciation is disingenuous at best and quite dastardly at worst,” he said before the Feb. 9 vote on the bill.
Social spending cannot outpace economic development as the United States faces trillions of dollars in debt, McLain said, adding that it is not a Republican-versus-Democrat issue.
“The federal government is currently in the hands of the Republicans,” he said. “Not that long ago, it was the Democrats. Sometime in the future, it may be the Democrats again. And yet math continues to win. Perhaps there are those who believe that we can — with our best intentions when we evoke the most honorable empathy instincts that we have — that somehow math doesn’t win. Maybe in some sort of fairy tale that might be true, but math wins.”
‘Facing an $88 million deficit’
Kaleikini told Street Roots that mathematical reality is uppermost in her thoughts. In terms of numbers, Oregon’s Employment Related Day-Care program serves 12,000 families. That includes child care for 30,000 children.
“This program is facing an $88 million deficit and is planned to shut down in January 2027,” she said. “We are here to uplift the pathway of disconnecting from the federal tax code to retain some of that revenue from wealthy and big corporations to make sure that people can keep access to child care and go to work.”
Andrea Williams, the president of the Oregon Food Bank, is also thinking about numbers these days.
“Visits to our pantries have increased by 51% over the last two years,” she told protesters Feb. 5. “That was 2.9 million visits to our food banks across the state. It feels like every day we wake up and ask, ‘When will the cruelty end?’”
The blame lands squarely at the doors of the White House, she added.
‘The task before us grows each day’
“Over the past year, the president and his administration has made every aspect of our job to feed people harder — from the biggest cut in SNAP history to cutting food to food banks to attacks on immigrants and people who are Trans, who already face high rates of hunger,” Williams said. “The task before us grows each day.”
State Rep. E. Werner Reschke, R-Klamath Falls, told the committee that tax breaks for businesses don’t deprive the state of financial resources.
“That money is not lost,” he said. “It’s here. It’s in the state of Oregon, but rather than being placed inside this building, it’s been given to the economic engine of our state — its people and its businesses.”
Dana Hepper isn’t buying it. The director of policy and advocacy at the nonprofit Children’s Institute told committee members the bill won’t hurt businesses.
“When you hear that Oregon businesses need these tax cuts, remember that the impacted business will already receive 70% of the value of their tax cuts from the feds,” she said.
‘Oregon has a tale of two economies’
Oregon’s quarterly revenue forecast was released by the Oregon Department of Administrative Services on Feb. 4, revealing that legislators have approximately $106 million more than expected to work with this session.
This is good news for lawmakers as they attempt to balance Oregon’s budget.
However, Oregon Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna told lawmakers that the silver linings come with some dark clouds — pointing to a K-shaped economy that leaves many Oregonians behind.
Riccadonna said the divide is getting wider. While capital gains taxes are on the rise from the sale of stocks, he said overall income taxes are down — indicating low wages and lost jobs or low job growth.
“Oregon has a tale of two economies,” Courtney Graham, the political director of Service Employees International Union 503, testified during the hearing on Senate Bill 1507. “Wealthy individuals and large corporations continue to do well, while lower-income and working Oregonians are falling further behind.”
The gap will worsen over the next six years as House Resolution 1 phases in, and Oregon loses billions in federal funding, she said.
“Many people, including my members, are counting on the Legislature to be a backstop against a federal government that is increasingly hostile to low-income and vulnerable communities,” Graham said.
The Oregon Legislature moves fast during its even-year short session. For the latest updates on key legislation, check out Street Roots’ regularly updated bill tracker or visit oregonlegislature.gov.
This article appears in February 18, 2026.