After a wet spring, Portland is drought-free, but that’s not the case for the rest of the state
Portland is emerging from one of the wettest springs on record and heading into summer drought-free, but Oregonians outside of the Willamette Valley aren’t feeling the same relief — much of the state remains in extreme or severe drought.
Although much of the northwestern portion of the state is free of any drought conditions, it’s not a guarantee of a mild fire season. Memories of last June’s deadly heat dome — and the promise of more frequent, more intense heat waves in the Pacific Northwest as climate change worsens — are spurring state agencies to strengthen efforts protecting vulnerable populations in extreme heat conditions.
A wet spring
Outside of the Willamette Valley, other parts of the state experienced moderately increased rainfall over the past three months, enough to bring most of Oregon, except Crook and Jefferson counties, out of “exceptional” drought conditions — but not enough to totally eliminate the water deficit, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Paul Loikith, associate professor of weather and climate science at Portland State University, said increased rainfall helped drier parts of the state, but more is needed to eliminate drought conditions.
“The current conditions are kind of a mixed story for say, Central Oregon and Southern Oregon, where the drought has been the most severe,” Loikith said. “There's been a lot of improvement in both the short-term and long-term drought this spring, but it hasn't been enough to erase the one to two-year rainfall deficits in parts of Central and Southern Oregon, which make up this longer-term drought.”
The ideal summer for minimizing drought and fire risk would look like more of the same weather the Portland metro experienced over the past few months — below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall.
“It would also help if there were cooler than average temperatures during the warm season because a warmer atmosphere just evaporates more water more quickly, and it causes more demand for water resources, so that would also help going through the summer,” Loikith said.
Competing interests over insufficient water resources is an ongoing issue in the driest parts of the state, like the Klamath River Basin, where increased water resources are desperately needed.
Fire season
A wet spring likely delayed the onset of the fire season in Oregon according to Nicholas Siler, assistant professor of climate science at Oregon State University and the assistant state climatologist for Oregon, but the dangers of wildfires and smoke continue to threaten communities across Oregon each summer.
A dramatic increase in temperatures could quickly give way to high wildfire risk.
Loikith said depending on the severity of the heat, conditions can change relatively quickly.
“With hot and dry weather, that moisture on the surface and in the vegetation can dry out in a matter of weeks,” Loikith said. “If it's really, really hot, it could start to dry out in a matter of days. So that (moisture) may not last through the summer; it doesn't usually do that. But at least for this time of year, especially compared to this time last year, the fire conditions are pretty minimal at this point.”
Siler said above-average precipitation in spring doesn’t guarantee a mild fire season.
“The spring has been cool and wet, which has been nice,” Siler said. “It has certainly delayed the onset of fire season, but as the summer warms up, and dries out, fire season is always a concern as well. A wet spring for certain grasses can actually cause the grasses to grow more and provide more fuel for fires later in the summer. So a wet spring is certainly beneficial for delaying the onset of the worst fire season, but it can actually provide more fuel for brush fires later in the summer.”
Siler says a best-case scenario would involve the persistence of relatively cool weather and delayed melting of snowpack in the Cascades.
The snowpack in the Oregon Cascades is above average for this time of year, which is helpful as the state moves into the dry season, but as climate change worsens, Oregon’s snowpack will likely decrease in the future, according to Siler.
Climate change concerns
As climate change intensifies, Oregon will face more extreme weather.
Oregon’s large size, diverse climate and geography mean the exact concerns facing communities in the state will vary based upon the precise locations, water needs and economy, according to Loikith.
Extreme heat, drought, wildfires and floods are Oregon’s greatest climate-related natural hazards, according to the 2021 Oregon Climate Report, an assessment of Oregon’s climate by researchers at Oregon State University. Temperatures in Oregon are expected to increase by 5 degrees on average by 2050, with the greatest increases in temperatures occurring during the summer.
“The risk of wildfires increases with the aridity of the soil and the vegetation,” Siler said. "So the drier the soil and the vegetation are, the greater risk there is of wildfires, and we expect as temperatures rise, the landscape will become more arid and the risk of wildfires will increase. We also expect with climate change, summers to become not only hotter but likely a bit drier as well. And summers are already quite dry. Most climate models predict a decrease in summertime precipitation as well, so that would cause wildfire risk to increase.”
Oregon will face changing precipitation patterns in the future as a result of climate change, according to the Oregon Climate Report.
“Looking forward, we expect snowpack to decrease as precipitation shifts from snow to rain,” Siler said. “That could result in a greater increase in flood risk as strong storms drop a lot of precipitation, and that precipitation is immediately released to the landscape, rather than being stored in snowpack.”
While the exact manner in which precipitation patterns will change is unknown, it’s part of Siler’s ongoing research at Oregon State University.
“We're trying to understand those patterns better, see what's driving that, and can we believe it?” Siler said. “And, what implications might that have for water resources in the future?”
Another heat dome?
Last June’s heat dome sent temperatures in Oregon soaring past 110 degrees in many places and fueled a rash of heat-related deaths — 96 in Oregon over the course of six days. Multnomah County reached a scorching 116 degrees.
This year’s wet spring weather and lack of an extreme heat wave were welcome, but the degree to which spring’s precipitation level prevents or lessens the severity of heat waves is a question scientists are still working to answer.
Loikith says there’s some evidence that the extremely dry soil increased the severity of last year’s heat wave, but it’s not yet clear how much that affected the extreme temperatures.
According to both Siler and Loikith, it is unlikely Oregon will experience a heat wave this summer that is as severe as last June’s, despite the increased frequency of extreme weather caused by climate change.
“I wouldn't necessarily expect a heat wave like that to happen again, at least not anytime soon,” Siler said. “Climate models suggest that that was perhaps a one-in-1,000-year event, even in the presence of climate change, so it was an extremely unusual event and one that we still don't fully understand.”
Loikith gave similar statements about the possibility of a similar event.
“It's not impossible, but it's extremely, extremely low when it comes to the likelihood,” Loikith said. “The likelihood that we will see a heat wave, or two, to a lesser magnitude is pretty likely. If you look at the past, we typically do an average of about one and a half days above 100 degrees in Portland summer.”
Painful lessons
Last June’s deadly heat wave wasn’t out of the blue — most forecasting models accurately predicted the looming high temperatures approximately a week in advance. Still, officials’ efforts weren’t enough to prevent more than 100 heat-related deaths.
Statewide, 116 people died of hyperthermia during last year’s heat dome, according to the Oregon Medical Examiner.
On June 28, 2021, Multnomah County recorded an all-time high temperature of 116 degrees. The following day, 25 people in the county died from hyperthermia. Between June 28 and July 2 last year, Multnomah County recorded 57 heat deaths, according to data from the Regional Climate and Health Monitoring Report.
On June 14 this year, the Multnomah County board met and discussed preparations for future extreme heat events.
Chris Voss, Multnomah County director of emergency management, said approaching the anniversary of last year’s heat event brought mixed emotions.
“On the one hand, still proud of the actions the county took and what others did to stand up and work this operation,” Voss said. “On the other side, really sad that we just didn’t have, maybe, the impact on everybody that we ultimately wanted."
The meeting featured detailed information regarding the emergency response during the record-breaking heat event.
Old Town, Downtown, Goose Hollow and the Pearl District experienced the highest rates of emergencies and heat-related deaths, according to Brendon Haggerty, program director for Multnomah County Health Department. Haggerty said the weekly historic average number of deaths from all causes during the timeframe of last year’s heat dome is about 94 deaths, but last year, the number of deaths skyrocketed to 186.
“I can tell you, having worked in the same office as the folks who process our death records, that was a really impactful week,” Haggerty said. “There were tears shed as people saw those reports come in, and realized it could have been them or their families or loved ones.”
Nearly 80% of Multnomah County residents who died from hyperthermia were age 60 or older. The vast majority lived in multifamily buildings, primarily those without air conditioning. Of the deceased, 82% were white, 6% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Native American and 1% Asian.
County looks ahead
Multnomah County officials say they’ve made a multitude of improvements to the emergency response for extreme heat events. The county says it's making a concerted effort to reach out to the communities most vulnerable to extreme heat and work with mutual aid groups to improve its reach.
The county’s past preparedness was called into question when dozens died during last June’s heat dome.
Its current methods of outreach include sending out smartphone alerts, handing out heat kits to homeless residents, opening cooling centers and waiving transit fares.
Celeste Duvall, the unsheltered emergency program specialist for the Joint Office of Homeless Services, said the county aims to expand access to cooling centers this year by ensuring they are more equitably distributed throughout the county.
“Using a standard checklist, we have completed walk-throughs for 18 different facilities so far with more scheduled this month,” Duvall said during the June 14 meeting. “We have completed the agreements and overnight use permits ahead of the season to make opening facilities more efficient and to set expectations.”
The county also acquired a 14,000-square-foot warehouse to store its expanding cache of emergency supplies for extreme weather responses.
Officials from the Joint Office described changes the department made since last year, saying it will also have space for people experiencing homelessness seeking a cooling center to store their belongings during an extreme heat event and has grown the outreach staff to increase its reach.
During the heat dome, at least four people experiencing homelessness died from hyperthermia, according to the county.
The county changed the qualifying/tier system under which it determines when to open cooling centers, expanding the criteria for when they will operate.
Loikith emphasized the importance of paying attention to meteorological experts’ advice.
“I think a really important thing for people to be aware of is the importance of weather forecasts,” Loikith said. “If we go back to the heatwave last June, that event did not sneak up on us. The weather forecasts had that event really pretty accurately a week in advance even a little bit before that.”
The members of the June 14 meeting acknowledged they needed to shift their outreach methods to address the populations the last heat event highlighted as most vulnerable, particularly older adults, those living in multifamily buildings, people without air conditioning and people living in cars or RVs. At least two deaths and a high number of emergencies requiring medical care occurred among people living in RVs, according to the county.
“We have gone through a list of multifamily buildings and identified those in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of older adults, lower-income households and also in urban heat islands,” Haggerty said. “So we have a fairly lengthy list of buildings and contact information. We're working with County Human Services and City of Portland Neighborhood Emergency Team to set up volunteer call lists where they will be contacting those buildings.”
Although the county says it has adapted its emergency response for extreme heat events, it remains to be seen whether that will result in tangibly fewer deaths and emergencies among vulnerable community members in Multnomah County.
Comprehensive collaboration with experts from the National Weather Service on forecasts is important, something Loikith emphasized and county officials also discussed in their meeting. Meteorological experts can add context to a forecast about how other factors besides temperature, like humidity or the presence of smoke, could affect people during a weather event.
“I think one of the things that climate change is teaching us, no matter where we live, there is no normal anymore,” Multnomah County Commissioner Jessica Vega Pederson said during the June 14 meeting. “We can expect extreme heat events or extreme weather events at any time. So knowing that we're prepared, and knowing especially here in this part of the country, we have to be prepared in ways that historically we have never had to before, is important.”
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