Survey finds TriMet fare increases will cause over half of respondents to use transit less, but the agency plans to hike fares anyway
TriMet’s Board of Directors will vote on a proposed fare increase at its May 24 meeting. If the board votes in favor, a fare increase will take effect Jan. 1, 2024. Yet, an online survey TriMet released in December shows more than half of respondents said they would use TriMet less if it increases fares.
Early results received from the survey and acquired through a public records request show as of Jan. 20, out of the 2,665 survey respondents, 1,292 said the fare increase would cause them to use TriMet less, while only 825 said it wouldn’t, or they weren’t sure if the increase would inform their choice. However, some board members and survey respondents showed ardent support for the proposal.
Since TriMet announced it was considering a fare increase in October, TriMet riders and community groups have voiced opposition and mounted arguments for a fareless system. Regardless, TriMet officials said it will not consider implementing a fareless system or increasing taxes as an alternate solution to increasing fares. TriMet maintains the fare increase is the best solution to its problem — a $307 million deficit expected to impact the agency by 2029.
If a deficit hits, TriMet director of budget and grants Nancy Young-Oliver said the gap between revenue and operation costs would likely lead to line closures and layoffs.
“We will have to pull back in the service we are offering if we don’t address the deficit,” Young-Oliver said at a Nov. 9 board meeting.
The proposed 30-cent increase would raise adult 2.5-hour tickets from $2.50 to $2.80. By TriMet policy, honored citizen and youth passes must be 50% of the adult fare, meaning the agency would raise honored citizen and youth 2.5-hour tickets by 15 cents. The agency said it will not, however, raise the cost of monthy or yearly passes for adults, honored citizens and youth.
The January 2024 proposal would also increase the adult day ticket by 60 cents — raising the fare from $5 to $5.60 — and, by default, increase the honored citizen and youth day tickets to $2.80.
By Young-Oliver’s estimations, the 30-cent increase would delay the deficit until 2032 and decrease the deficit from $307.40 million to $16 million, but only if a 30-cent increase occurs every other year. With a regular increase in fare, an adult 2.5-hour ticket will cost $4 by 2032.
Community response
TriMet will host in-person and virtual events “to inform and educate riders, employees and community members about the proposed fare increase,” according to the proposal.
TriMet’s survey is a part of this effort. In addition to asking how the fare would affect ridership, the survey asked how the proposed fare would affect the respondents, ranging from large to no impact. Nearly half of respondents — 1,117 — said the fare increase would have a large impact, 868 said it would have a small impact, and 529 said it would have no impact.
TriMet asked if the fare increase would cause respondents to use TriMet less, and more than half — 1,292 — said it would, 503 said it wouldn’t and 322 said they weren’t sure.
Of the respondents, most fell into the categories of “frequent to occasional rider,” meaning they ride TriMet between several times a week and several times a month. Respondents were relatively split on whether they had another vehicle they could use — 1,386 said they did, and 1,076 said they didn’t.
The survey, which does not ask if respondents support the fare increase, will remain open through February. TriMet hasn’t verified current responses.
Street Roots spoke with people who said the fare increase would impact them. One rider, Colten Waisanen, said the fare increase would severely impact him.
“I find myself without fare often, thus increasing my risk of my safety due to confrontations with the (TriMet) fare enforcement,” he said. “That would lead to a criminal record I don’t have the time or money to deal with.”
Another rider, Portland State University student Hayden Farris, said they are concerned the fare increase could have a sticker shock effect on riders.
“The increased fare raise will lead to the cost of (TriMet) staying more present in my mind because it’s no longer at the easy-on-the-brain numbers … and would make me much more aware of paying for transit than I currently do,” they said.
Danny Cage, a Portland Public Schools student, predominantly relies on TriMet. While PPS students have fare covered to and from school, Cage also uses TriMet to get to work and spend time with friends and family and doesn’t have an alternate mode of transportation.
“I also heavily think that there are other means and other ways to look at funding sources," Cage said. "And I think that raising fare should be the last, the very last alternative to looking at income. I especially think that TriMet, if they are in a budget crisis, needs to go, especially given the fact that with a new governor and new legislative session, right on the (docket) needs to go and be in the halls of Salem and advocate, so they're not harming the people who use their everyday services and instead getting the money from the state.”
Cage also said this is an environmental issue.
“If we're deterring people from public transit, we inadvertently are detaching ourselves from our climate goals that we have set,” Cage said. “And I don't think that we can call ourselves a climate-friendly state when public transit is a barrier for the everyday person.”
The survey also asked a series of questions to demonstrate TriMet’s fare assistance programs, including if respondents were aware of TriMet's reduced fare programs. Of the 2,655 survey respondents, 2,297 said they were aware of TriMet’s reduced fares. Only 365 responded “No.”
TriMet also asked if respondents were aware of TriMet’s free and reduced fare programs for nonprofits and community-based organizations. Of the 2,000-plus respondents, 1,926 said they were aware of the programs, and 727 said they were not.
TriMet’s board will consider community feedback before its May vote, but it is compelled by TriMet’s staff to vote based on what is best for the agency, not necessarily what is best for riders. With a $300 million deficit heading its way and no other proposed solutions, TriMet’s board said it is prepared to vote for a fare increase, regardless of community support.
“I would love to point to our revenue development strategy and say, ‘Look, board members and the members of the public, this fare increase is in complete alignment with where we’re headed, and so this is needed,'” Board member Thomas Kim said at the Nov. 9 meeting. “There’s no discussion needed here because we’ve already decided on the direction of where we’re headed to.”
Board member Ozzie Gonzalez echoed Kim’s perspective on the fare increase.
“Any amount is going to be a challenge for the public, and I don’t think we should be shy or squeamish about engaging in this,” Gonzalez said.
The concern
The fare increase won't solve the deficit; it will only hold it off. At least one board member voiced concern about the proposal's viability.
“In my mind, I’m going, ‘Well, but we’re still going to have a deficit … it’s still unsustainable,’” board member Kathy Wai said during the Nov. 9 meeting.
Wai asked if TriMet was considering other solutions to the deficit but was rebuffed by Young-Oliver and the board’s president, Linda Simmons, who said the board can only consider the fare increase proposals TriMet presents the board.
While designing proposals, the agency looked at other public transportation systems, Young-Oliver said in a Nov. 9 board meeting. Out of nine local U.S. transit systems TriMet evaluated, none made more than 17.8% of its revenue off fares. All nine systems relied on taxes for the majority of revenue.
According to Young-Oliver, fare revenue only contributed 15.5% to TriMet’s overall revenue in 2022, while employee payroll taxes were the agency’s largest resource, accounting for almost 40% of revenue.
TriMet also proposed a 20-cent increase in September 2023 and a 40-cent increase for September 2024.
A straw vote showed most directors were in favor of the 30-cent increase. By Nancy Young-Oliver’s estimations, the 20-cent increase would delay the deficit until 2031 and decrease the deficit to $133.2 million, while a 40-cent increase would delay the deficit for at least 12 years but increase the deficit to $395.5 million. None of the plans aim to erase the deficit completely.
Young-Oliver expects the 30-cent increase to raise yearly fare revenue by $5.1 million, despite ridership declining since 2015. Ridership is currently down by 40% and only recouped $53.9 million out of $406.4 million (13%) spent on operations costs in 2022.
However, the projected revenue increase assumes a significant increase in ridership over five years, according to Young-Oliver. At the Nov. 9 meeting, TriMet’s general manager, Sam Desue, told the board the assumption is based on results from a study from transit consultant firm Jarratt Walker + Associates.
“It was part of a study that we have that’s going on now,” Desue said. “The (comprehensive service analysis) and Jarratt Walker’s conversations with us.”
TriMet spokesperson Tia York told Street Roots Desue was referencing a study currently being performed by Jarratt Walker + Associates. However, York did not produce the study and told Street Roots that TriMet has not yet received results from the study. Additionally, York said Jarratt Walker + Associates doesn’t typically provide ridership predictions.
The projection also assumes ridership will only dip by 1% for a short time after the increase is enacted.
“Generally, when you raise fares, you have a deflection rate of about 1%, and then ridership goes back up,” Young-Oliver said.
Cracking down on fare evasion
To increase ridership and revenue, Young-Oliver proposed a few changes, including a new fare evasion campaign.
To crack down on fare evasion, Young-Oliver said the board should double security, increase fare inspections, introduce a new “reminder to pay your fare” campaign and release a fare evasion survey in spring 2023. TriMet currently employs 37 fare enforcement officers.
Wai voiced concern about Young-Oliver’s fare evasion campaign.
“I remember it didn’t land very well with some members of our community,” Wai said. “They felt like they didn’t want to police their neighbors that are riding next to them.”
Instead, Wai suggested TriMet pivot away from people who are unable to pay their fares and focus on convincing people to switch from commuting via car to using TriMet.
“It’s expensive to get in your car,” Wai said. “It’s expensive to put a gallon of gas in your car, so choose public transit as a cheaper way to save our planet, to minimize congestion, to save your money.”
Pros and cons
Before voting on the proposal in April, TriMet’s board will evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a fare increase and complete the required Title VI study and community outreach.
According to Young-Oliver, the 30-cent raise in Jan. 2024 will allow TriMet more time to communicate about the fare increase within the community and implement Hop system changes.
The longer timeline is also advantageous because “it also allows for more time to look at the burden of that fare increase on those individuals who are essential riders and transit-dependent riders,” Young-Oliver said during the Nov. 9 presentation.
The late timeline can be disadvantageous too. Further time passing is “lost revenue,” according to Young-Oliver, and can make it appear that TriMet can go without a fare increase.
TriMet currently has a AAA bond rating, allowing it to borrow funds at the best rates. Bond ratings are based in part on the farebox revenue of the agency.
“While our employee payroll taxes have increased, our federal formula funding has increased, our passenger revenues have not increased,” Young-Oliver said.
If the fare increase is a deterrent to riders, it could contribute to TriMet’s low farebox recovery rate and, in turn, harm its bond rating.
Young-Oliver told the board it should also consider federal COVID-19 assistance will run out by 2025. Current business payroll tax growth will also end in 2026, contributing to the deficit.
While Young-Oliver and Desue are pushing for a fare increase, raising the fare could have detrimental consequences to TriMet’s revenue.
Since January 2016, employers in TriMet’s district paid an additional 1/10 of 1% annual increase on payroll taxes on top of their current rate and will do so until January 2025. Raising the fare could burden on employers, many of whom TriMet noted purchase TriMet passes through its corporate sales program — including Nike and OHSU. An increase may lead employers to opt out of the program, decreasing revenue and ridership.
The additional payroll tax is a dedicated funding stream, attributed by Oregon House Bill 2017, for service expansion, zero-emission buses, additional amenities, and other upgrades. While the funds do not supplant operational funding, TriMet said employers may see the fare increase as “double dipping.”
Young-Oliver admitted the fare raise could also discourage lower-income riders.
“However, as we talked about, we’re looking at using some of those (Short-Term Investment Fund) fundings to mitigate the cost and the impact of a fare increase to those most vulnerable,” Young-Oliver said.
Editor's note: A previous version of this article included an incorrect date for the TriMet board's vote on fare hikes. The updated version of the article includes the correct date, as well as clarification on which fares TriMet will vote on increasing. Street Roots regrets this error.
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